Machine learning estimates an outcome from inputs available at a defined decision time. Baselines, splits and operating costs determine whether the model helps.
Foundations
- Machine learning starts with a baseline and a valid prediction clock
- Machine learning core concepts: features, labels, validation and decisions
Model validity and decision policy
- Prediction-time feature availability: reject future information before training
- Group and time validation: split by the failure you expect in production
- Leakage-safe preprocessing: fit every learned transform inside the training fold
- Decision thresholds: choose an action from probabilities and error costs
- Probability calibration: test whether risk scores mean what they say
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Compare data representations: Vector vs raster in machine learning: geometry, pixels and feature vectors.
Core models and operating metrics
- Regression baselines and honest holdout metrics
- Regression error slices and costly tails
- Ridge regularization with training-only scaling
- Rare-event precision, recall and changing prevalence
- Decision-tree splits and minimum leaf support
Shipment and claim model review
Selection, inspection and unsupervised structure
- Hyperparameter search and an untouched final test
- Permutation importance on held-out data
- Distance scaling before clustering
- K-means objective and restart stability
- Principal components and variance retention
Model selection and warehouse segmentation review
Ensembles, uncertainty and operations
- Bootstrap bagging and out-of-bag evaluation
- Random forest feature subsampling and leaf support
- Gradient boosting residuals and early stopping
- Learning curves and training-size diagnosis
- Paired bootstrap intervals for model gain
- Feature drift and delayed-label monitoring
Ensemble release review
Classification boundaries and density structure
- Logistic regression, log loss and odds
- Linear margin classifiers and hinge loss
- DBSCAN core, border and noise points
- Agglomerative linkage and cluster cuts
Classification and segmentation review
Neighbor, probabilistic and cost-sensitive triage
- Nearest-neighbor distance and local support
- Naive Bayes smoothing and dependent features
- Fold-local feature selection and stability
- Class weighting versus decision thresholds
- Multiclass confusion and action costs
Handoff triage model review
Label efficiency and incremental decisions
- Pseudo-label selection and contamination control
- Weak-label rules, coverage and conflicts
- Active learning with uncertainty and diversity
- Online updates with delayed feedback
- Label-prior shift and odds adjustment
Label budget and incremental learning review
Uncertainty, group error and escalation
- Split conformal intervals for clearance forecasts
- Prediction interval coverage by operating slice
- Group error gaps and policy audit
- Selective prediction and review capacity
- Ensemble disagreement and outcome noise
Uncertainty and escalation review
Distribution shift and model transition
- Covariate shift and support overlap
- Importance-weighted risk under covariate shift
- Concept change with mature outcomes
- Rolling-origin retraining with an outcome embargo
- Champion–challenger shadow comparison
Distribution shift response
Contextual bandits and policy evidence
- Contextual bandit action logging and support
- Inverse-propensity policy value
- Doubly robust contextual policy value
- Exploration budget and action guardrails
- Delayed bandit rewards and outcome maturity
Bandit policy release review
Transfer learning and target evidence
- Pretrained encoder and target-task contract
- Frozen embeddings and a linear probe
- Staged fine-tuning and checkpoint selection
- Negative transfer by target slice
- Pretraining overlap and provenance audit
Transfer learning release review
Multi-label classification and decisions
- Multi-label schema and unknown targets
- Binary relevance and label dependence
- Per-label thresholds and action cost
- Multi-label metrics and denominators
- Multi-label calibration and label cardinality
Multi-label parcel review
Sequential decisions and value learning
- Sequential decision state and reward contract
- Bellman value iteration for stock control
- Episode returns, temporal difference and terminal states
- Q-learning control and exploration
- Offline trajectory support and simulator risk
Sequential stock-control review
Model compression and serving tradeoffs
- Model inference budget and device profile
- Teacher–student distillation objective
- Structured pruning and compute shape
- Affine quantization and range audit
- Compression Pareto review and shadow check
Model compression release review
Learning to rank and search relevance
- Ranking query groups and relevance labels
- Pairwise ranking loss, ties and useful comparisons
- NDCG at K with a declared query denominator
- Click position bias and support for ranking evaluation
- Ranking serving budget and candidate recall
Maintenance-search ranking release review
Metric learning and embedding retrieval
- Embedding pairs, identity labels and leakage-safe splits
- Triplet margin and normalized embedding geometry
- Hard-negative mining without false-negative shortcuts
- Embedding retrieval recall and collapse checks
- Exact versus approximate nearest-neighbor audit
Visual part-matching release review
Federated training and site-level evaluation
- Federated client data and target contract
- Federated averaging and client weighting
- Non-IID clients, local steps and update disagreement
- Client participation, dropouts and stale updates
- Federated evaluation by site and denominator
Federated depot model release review
Model explanations and action limits
- Correlated feature permutation audit
- Partial dependence, ICE curves and support limits
- Feasible counterfactual explanations for model decisions
- Explanation stability and fidelity under model updates
Pump-risk explanation release review
Positive–unlabeled learning and incomplete labels
- Positive–unlabeled target and observation state
- PU label selection: SCAR and site-dependent confirmation
- PU class prior and confirmation-rate sensitivity
- Nonnegative PU risk objective and its assumptions
- Evaluate PU models with an adjudicated sample
Unresolved pump-failure release review
Multi-task models and shared representation
- Multi-task targets and per-head label availability
- Multi-task head losses with observed-label masks
- Multi-task loss balance and shared-gradient conflict
- Multi-task negative transfer and per-task baselines
Shared pump-inspection model release review
Self-supervised representations and pretraining audits
- Self-supervised objectives and valid views
- Masked reconstruction targets and shortcut checks
- Contrastive pairs, batch negatives and identity collisions
- Representation collapse and frozen linear probes
- Pretraining corpus boundaries and provenance audit
Self-supervised parcel-image release project
Structured prediction and field extraction
- Sequence-label contracts and token alignment
- Constrained sequence decoding and valid label paths
- Span-level evaluation and extraction error taxonomy
- Structured-output confidence and selective review
Claims-note structured extraction release project
Time-to-event machine learning and fleet decisions
- Time-to-event targets and censoring contracts
- Survival risk sets and landmark snapshots
- Time-varying survival features without future leakage
- Survival-model evaluation at supported horizons
- Competing events and service-policy review
Fleet battery timing release project
Active learning and annotation budgets
- Active-learning pool eligibility and round snapshots
- Active-learning batch selection under annotation cost
- Active-learning annotator disagreement and adjudication
- Active-learning evaluation and stopping by value
